Market Is Providing Insight Into Fed Rate Hike Now

Want To Know The Weather?

One of the easiest ways to understand the weather is to look out the window. With the market assigning an “almost a done deal” probability of 78% that the Federal Reserve hikes rates on December 16, we will be able to gain insight into “how will the market react to the first Fed hike” by simply observing the markets over the next 20 calendar days or so. With a 78% probability of a hike, markets are already adjusting for the first rate hike in nine years.

Current Read: Tentatively Bullish

As noted in “What Does History Say About The First Rate Hike And Stocks (1983-2015)?”, it is not unusual for markets to be difficult and indecisive heading into the first rate hike of a new rate hike cycle. The chart below shows the market is currently tentatively bullish The tentative part is summarized via the flat 200-day moving average in red, which indicates no clear long-term trend and mixed investor conviction. The bullish part is evident in the following:

The double bottom formation was covered via a October 10 tweet (see it).

Long-Term, Rare Bullish Signal Last Week

Is there anything else that aligns with the “tentatively bullish” outlook? Yes, this week’s video describes a signal that is summarized conceptually in the tweet below:

A bullish signal from the Coppock Curve is not rare at all; what is rare is the combination of deeply oversold (weak momentum) followed by a bullish signal. In fact, the combination seen last week has only occurred five other times in the last 32 years. Each of the five historical cases from a “what happened next in the stock market” perspective is covered in the video.

Predictions Are Difficult At Best