May 2017 Small Business Optimism Continues Flying High

from the National Federation of Independent Business

Small business confidence shot up to near record levels last November and is still flying high, according to the latest National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Index of Small Business Optimism.

[editor’s note: Market expectation from Bloomberg/Econoday was between 102.0 to 105.0 (consensus 104.0) versus the actual reading of 104.5.]

Said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan:

“The remarkable surge in optimism that began last year right after the election shows no signs of slowing down. Small business owners are highly encouraged by the President’s regulatory reform agenda, and they remain optimistic there will be tax reform and health-care reform. This is a policy-driven phenomenon.

If Congress wants small businesses to invest in the economy, then they must cut taxes and simplify the code. The President’s tax plan would slash taxes for small businesses and level the playing field for businesses of every size and structure. Congress also has other good ideas for tax reform, but they need to stop talking and pass a bill.

We know, based on our data, that small business owners are watching very closely what is happening in Washington. The optimism is based on the expectation of policy changes, and that means tax reform.

The Index for May matched its strong performance in April of 104.5. That means the Index has been at a historically high level for six straight months. Five of the Index components posted a gain, four declined, and one remained unchanged.

The average employment change per firm was 0.34, which puts hiring activity in May near the highest levels in the 43-year history of the Index. Fifteen percent of owners reported hiring three workers per firm, 9 percent reported cutting 2.3 workers per firm.

A strong majority of owners, 59 percent, reported hiring or trying to hire in May, although 51 percent said they found few or no qualified workers. Remarkably, that was a problem for 86 percent of owners who said they tried to hire. Nineteen percent of all owners in the survey said finding qualified workers was their top concern, making it the second-biggest problem for small business.

Said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg:

“The tight labor market has been a persistent problem for small business owners for the past several months, and the problem appears to be getting worse,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “It’s forcing small business owners to increase compensation, which we’re seeing in this data, to attract new workers and keep the ones they have. But it also means a lot of small business owners are short-handed. They can’t keep up with customer demand because the labor pool isn’t producing enough qualified workers. It’s a significant structural problem in the economy that policymakers will have to watch.”

“Typically, in a strong economy, we see a lot more spending on capital,” said Dunkelberg. “We’re seeing increased hiring activity and some other positive signs, but the capital-outlays component is the missing ingredient for robust economic growth.”