OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
March E-mini S&Ps (ESH16 +0.66%) are up +0.61% and European stocks are up +1.30% as Chinese economic concerns eased after Chinese trade data showed China’s exports and imports fell less than expected last month. Strength in crude oil and copper also lifted energy and commodity producers. Most global stock markets moved higher despite a fall in China’s Shanghai Composite to a 4-1/2 month low. European stocks also moved higher even after Eurozone Nov industrial production fell more than expected by the most in 1-1/4 years. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +2.88%, Hong Kong +1.13%, China -2.42%, Taiwan +0.72%, Australia +1.27%, Singapore +0.18%, South Korea +1.29%, India +0.70%.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.33%) is up +0.25%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.34%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.40%.
Mar T-note prices (ZNH16 -0.22%) are down -9.5 ticks as the rally in stocks curbs the safe-haven demand for T-notes.
Eurozone Nov industrial production fell -0.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m and the largest decline in 15 months.
Stock data from the Shanghai Stock Exchange showed margin traders cut holdings of stock purchased on margin for an eighth day on Tuesday, with the total balance of margin debt on the Shanghai Stock Exchange falling to 610.5 billion yuan ($92.8 billion), the lowest in 2-1/2 months.
The China Dec trade balance widened to a surplus of +$60.09 billion, a larger surplus than expectations of +$51.30 billion. Dec exports fell -1.4% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -8.0% y/y. Dec imports fell -7.6% y/y, a smaller decline than expectations of -11.0% y/y.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -11.6% with purchase sub-index -11.1% and refi sub-index 12.4%), (2) Chicago Fed President Charles Evans’ speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at an event in Cedar Rapids, IA, (3) the Treasury’s auction of $21 billion 10-year T-notes, (4) Dec monthly budget statement (expected -$7.1 billion, Nov -$64.553 billion), and (5) Fed Beige Book.
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