Morning Call For October 8, 2015

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

December E-mini S&Ps (ESZ15 -0.31%) are down -0.36% and European stocks are down -0.28% after disappointing German export data added to concerns that the global recovery may be weaker than previously thought. German Aug exports fell by the most in 6-1/2 years, although European stocks recovered a good portion of their losses on speculation the weak trade data may spur the ECB into expanding QE. Automakers are also higher, led by a +2.9% increase in Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV, after the company reached a tentative agreement with the United Auto Workers Union in the U.S. to avert a strike. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan -0.99%, Hong Kong -0.71%, China +2.97%, Taiwan -0.58%, Australia +0.24%, Singapore -0.50%, South Korea +1.03%, India -0.70%. China’s Shanghai Composite resumed trade after a week-long holiday and closed up nearly 3% on speculation the government will take additional steps to revive economic growth.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.27%) is down % at a 2-week low. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.53%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.17%.

Dec T-note prices (ZNZ15 +0.10%) are up +4.5 ticks.

As expected, the BOE maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.50% and kept its asset purchase target at 375 billion pounds following today’s policy meeting.

The German Aug trade balance shrank to a surplus of 15.3 billion euros, less than expectations of 19.0 billion euros and the smallest surplus in a year. Aug exports fell -5.2% m/m, a bigger drop than expectations of -0.9% m/m and the largest decline in 6-1/2 years. Aug imports fell -3.1% m/m, a bigger drop than expectations of -0.6% m/m and the largest decline in 2-3/4 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected -3,000 to 274,000, previous +10,000 to 277,000) and continuing claims (expected +9,000 to 2.200 million, previous 53,000 to 2.191 million), (2) the minutes of the Sep 16-17 FOMC meeting, (3) the Treasury’s auction of $13 billion of 30-year T-bonds, (4) welcoming remarks by Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota followed by a forum at the Greater Mankato Growth Event at Minnesota State University, and (5) San Francisco Fed President John Williams’ speech on the economic outlook to the Spokane Metropolitan Area Business and Community Leaders’ Luncheon.