Morning Call For Thursday, Feb. 1

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH18 +0.05%) this morning are up +0.08% led by a 2% gain in Facebook in pre-market trading. Energy stocks are higher as well with Mar WTI crude oil (CLH18 +0.70%) up +0.59% after Goldman Sachs raised their 6-month crude oil price outlook to $82.50 from $62.00 and said output cuts by OPEC and a collapse in Venezuelan crude production have helped clear a global glut in crude supplies six months earlier than expected. European stocks are up +0.20% on solid quarterly stock earnings results, although gains were contained on interest rate concerns after the 10-year German bund yield rose to a new 2-year high of 0.734%. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +1.68%, Hong Kong -0.75%, China -0.97%, Taiwan +0.51%, Australia +0.87%, Singapore +0.37%, South Korea -0.01%, India -0.16%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell to a 2-week low on long liquidation after China’s Securities Regulatory Commission called for stepped up monitoring of risks in stock, bond and futures markets. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index closed higher after the Fed acknowledged stronger growth and signaled optimism in the U.S. economy following Wednesday’s 2-day FOMC meeting.

The dollar index (DXY00 -0.11%) is down -0.05%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is up +0.23%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.43%.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH18 -0.19%) are down -7.5 ticks at a new contract low.

The UK Jan Markit manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell -0.9 to 55.2, weaker than expectations of +0.2 to 56.5 and the slowest pace of expansion in 7 months.

UK Jan nationwide house prices rose +0.6% m/m and +3.2% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and +2.5% y/y with the +3.2% y/y gains the largest year-on-year increase in 10-months.

The China Jan Caixin (flash) manufacturing PMI was unch at 51.5, right on expectations.

Japan Jan vehicle sales fell -5.7% y/y, the fourth straight monthly decline and the biggest drop in 2-3/4 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Jan Challenger job cuts (Dec -3.6% y/y), (2) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +2,000 to 235,000, previous +17,000 to 233,000) and continuing claims (expected -8,000 to 1.929 million, previous -28,000 to 1.937 million), (3) Q4 nonfarm productivity (expected +0.8%, Q3 +3.0%) and O4 unit labor costs (expected +0.9%, Q3 -0.2%), (4) USDA weekly Export Sales, (5) revised Jan Markit manufacturing PMI (expected unrevised, prelim-Jan +0.4 to 55.5), (6) Jan ISM manufacturing index (expected -0.7 to 58.6, Dec +1.1 to 59.3), (7) Dec construction spending (expected +0.4%, Nov +0.8%), (8) Jan total vehicle sales (expected 17.25 million, Dec 17.76 million).