Morning Call For Tuesday, Oct. 17

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 -0.02%) this morning are little changed, down -0.03%, and European stocks are up +0.08%. U.S. stock indexes were consolidating their gains from Monday’s rally to new all-time highs. The upside in European stocks was limited after Spain cut its 2018 GDP estimate to 2.3% from 2.6%, citing the impact of the political standoff in Catalonia. Also, the German Oct ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose less than expected. Asian stocks settled mostly higher: Japan +0.38%, Hong Kong +0.02%, China -0.19%, Taiwan -0.47%, Australia +0.73%, Singapore +0.18%, South Korea +0.21%, India -0.08%. Chinese stocks retreated ahead of a meeting of Chinese Communist Party leaders on Wednesday, while Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index rallied to a new 20-3/4 year high on optimism in the global economic outlook along with carry-over support from Monday’s rally in U.S stocks to new record highs.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.25%) is up +0.22% after several people with knowledge of the matter said that John Taylor, a known hawk, made a favorable impression on President Trump after his interview with the President for Fed Chair. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.31% on the prospects for the ECB to extend QE after Spain cut its 2018 GDP forecasts and after the German Oct ZEW came in lower than expected. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.02%.

Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 -0.01%) are little changed, down -0.5 of a tick.

The German Oct ZEW survey expectations of economic growth rose +0.6 to 17.6, weaker than expectations of +3.0 to 20.0.

The UK Sep CPI of +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y was right on expectations with the +3.0% y/y gain the fastest year-on-year pace of increase in 5-1/2 years. The Sep core CPI rose +2.7% y/y, right on expectations and the fastest pace of growth in 5-3/4 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) Sep import price index (expected +0.6% m/m and +2.6% y/y, Aug +0.6% m/m and +2.1% y/y), (2) Sep industrial production (expected +0.2%, Aug -0.9% m/m), (3) Oct NAHB housing market index (expected unch at 64, Sep -3 to 64).