Morning Call For Wednesday, February 28

OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH18 -0.06%) this morning are down -0.01% and European stocks are down -0.40% on Chinese economic concerns after the China Feb manufacturing PMI fell more than expected to its slowest pace of growth in 1-1/2 years. Chinese copper demand concerns are undercutting mining stocks and leading losses in the overall market as Mar COMEX copper (HGH18 -0.62%) falls -0.60% to a 2-week low. Losses in equities are limited as the 10-year T-note yield stabilizes below 2.90%. The downside in European stocks is contained after Eurozone Feb CPI rose at the slowest pace in 14-months, which may keep the ECB from ending QE. Asian stocks settled lower: Japan -1.44%, Hong Kong -1.36%, China -0.99%, Taiwan closed for holiday, Australia -0.68%, Singapore -0.63%, South Korea -1.25%, India -0.47%. Chinese stocks declined on weaker than expected Feb manufacturing activity and Japanese stocks moved lower after Japan Jan industrial output dropped at the fastest pace in 6-3/4 years.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.18%) is up +0.16% at a 2-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.12% at a 1-1/4 month low. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is down -0.23%.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH18 +0.09%) are up +2.5 ticks.

The Eurozone Feb CPI estimate rose +1.2% y/y, right on expectations and the slowest pace of increase in 14 months. The Feb core CPI rose +1.0% y/y, right on expectations.

The German Mar GfK consumer confidence fell -0.2 to 10.8, weaker than expectations of -0.1 to 10.9.

German Feb unemployment fell -22,000 to 2.393 million, better than expectations of -15,000. The Feb unemployment rate held at a record low of 5.4%, right on expectations.

Japan Jan industrial production fell -6.6% m/m, weaker than expectations of -4.0% m/m and the biggest decline in 6-3/4 years.

The China Feb manufacturing PMI fell -1.0 to 50.3, weaker than expectations of -0.2 to 51.1 and the slowest pace of expansion in 1-1/2 years.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly MBA mortgage applications (previous -6.6% with purchase sub-index -6.2% and refi sub-index -7.1%), (2) revised Q4 GDP expected +2.5% (q/q annualized) vs previous +2.6%, (3) Feb Chicago PMI (expected -1.7 to 64.0, Jan -2.1 to 65.7), (4) Jan pending home sales (expected +0.5% m/m, Dec +0.5% m/m and -1.8% y/y), and (5) EIA weekly Petroleum Status Report.