Naked Predictions Can Put Analysts In The Dirt

In just one day, I saw three completely different analyses on the market.

First, Grantham said that he does not foresee a bubble. Rather, he sees low yields and a time correction.

Secondly, analysts like Chris Ciovacco say that Nasdaq just broke out of a 20-year consolidation.

Bullish sentiment suggests the market will explode higher in the next 8-10 years offering a rare generational opportunity. Furthermore, these analysts are looking for a final stage of euphoria where bears finally throw in the towel and buy.

Bill Gross of Janus Henderson Global says that “all markets are increasingly at risk.” He, along with others, believe that productivity will decrease, and the market will take a very nasty turn.

I can wrap my head around Grantham’s and Gross’ predictions.

As a technical analyst, I have my own predictions based on the topics I have covered in my Daily’s-stagnation, declining transportation sector, IWM (Russell 2000) possibly failing a monthly channel top.

What I am trying to reckon with is, exactly what will make bears so happy as to start buying with wild abandon?

A quick review:

A promise of infrastructure spending to rebuild roads, bridges, etc. Unless I missed something, I have yet to see any tangible plan. Should one emerge, maybe euphoria a bit strong, but a confidence booster, yes.

Tax Reform- – corporate tax rate from 35 to 20%. However, not until 2019. Nothing at all will change in the world or country by then. Right?

The plan also covers tax brackets, doubling standard deductions, eliminating federal deductions for state and local taxes, increasing the child tax credit and doubling the exemption of the estate tax.

Nevertheless, it may not pass the Senate.

Health Care – off the table?

North Korea – hawkish talk continues