The consensus estimate on new home sales missed the mark badly but there were positive revisions in two prior months.
The consensus Econoday estimate was 640,000 new home sales in January but the economists were off by a mile.
Sales of new homes slowed but not all the data in January’s new home sales report are negative. New home sales came in at a much lower-than-expected 593,000 annualized rate in January though, in offsets, the two prior months are revised a net 25,000 higher. And badly needed supply moved into the market, up a monthly 2.4 percent to 301,000 units for sale. On a sales basis, supply jumped above 6 months to 6.1 months vs 5.5 and 4.9 months in the two prior months.
But sales in January were definitely soft as the rate in the South, which is by far the largest housing region, fell 14.2 percent to a 301,000 rate with the Northeast, which had been coming on strong, down 33.3 percent to only a 24,000 rate. Year-on-year, sales in the West are doing best at plus 33.1 percent with the South down, however, a steep 10.9 percent. Overall, new home sales are down a yearly 1.0 percent.
Prices are another negative in the report, down 4.1 percent for the median to $323,000 though the yearly rate is still positive at 2.5 percent.
The new home market surged into the end of last year but understandably slowed in January. Yet supply, that is the lack of it, is an overwhelming issue for the market and today’s details, including gains underway for permits and starts which are growing in the mid-to-high single digits, are positives for the outlook.
Down Again
Mortgage News Daily reports Despite Gains in Midwest, New Home Sales Down 7.8%.
New home sales fell again in January, although not quite as sharply as in December. Stalling sales in recent months has now dragged the annual rate below that of a year earlier.
There was a slight increase in inventory, from 294,000 units for sale at the end of December to 301,000 at the end of the current period. That brought the estimated inventory up into what is considered a balanced market, at a 6.1-month supply. The supply was estimated at 5.5 months in December. Of the available homes, only 64,000 are ready for occupancy. Completed homes have a marketing time of 3.3 months, unchanged from December.
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