The Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index – which forecasts employment for the next 6 months improved with the author’s saying “The decline in the Employment Trends Index in November comes after one of the largest monthly increases ever last month“.

Analyst Opinion of Conference Board’s Employment Index

Econintersect evaluates year-over-year change of this index (which is different than the headline view) – as we do with our own employment index. The year-over-year index growth rate declined from last month. However, our index’s growth marginally improved.

Note that the Econintersect Employment Index is not based on employment data.

From the Conference Board:

The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) decreased in November, after a sharp increase in October. The index now stands at 135.88, down from 136.23 (an upward revision) in October. The change represents a 4.7 percent gain in the ETI compared to a year ago.

“The decline in the Employment Trends Index in November comes after one of the largest monthly increases ever last month. The ETI is still on an upward trend and suggests that employment is likely to continue to grow in the months ahead,” said Gad Levanon, Chief Economist, North America, at The Conference Board. “The US economy has been accelerating in recent quarters, leading to strong labor demand that is unlikely to slow down in the coming months.”

November’s decrease in the ETI was fueled by negative contributions from three out of the eight components. From the largest negative contributor to the smallest, these were: Percentage of Firms with Positions Not Able to Fill

To add context to this index, the following graph compares BLS non-farm payrolls, the
Econintersect Employment Index, and The Conference Board ETI. Econintersectuses non-labor and mostly non-monetary economic pulse points in constructing its index, while The Conference Board uses mostly elements of employment data.

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