November 2017 Initial Unemployment Claims Rolling Average Marginally Improve

Hurricanes Irma and Maria continue to impact claims taking procedures in the Virgin Islands, but Puerto Rico improved. The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Bloomberg/Econoday) were 229 K to 242 K (consensus 232,000), and the Department of Labor reported 239,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 232,500 (reported last week as 232,500) to 231,250. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.

Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims

This marks 137 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. The general trend of the 4 week rolling average is a slowing rate of improvement year-over-year which historically suggests a slowing economy.

It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 9.7 % lower (better than the 9.0 % lower for last week) than they were in this same week in 2016.

Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).

From the Department of Labor:

In the week ending November 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 239,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 229,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 232,500. This is the lowest level for this average since March 31, 1973 when it was 227,750. Claims taking procedures continue to be severely disrupted in the Virgin Islands. The ability to take claims has improved in Puerto Rico and they are now processing backlogged claims.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.4 percent for the week ending October 28, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending October 28 was 1,901,000, an increase of 17,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 1,884,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,895,250, a decrease of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since January 12, 1974 when it was 1,881,000. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 1,895,750 to 1,896,000.