Oil & Copper Are Trend Down

There is a lot of hype regenerating in the commodity/resources/hard assets patch. ‘Core CPI is elevating and the Fed is behind the curve!’ goes the pitch. Well maybe, but the market’s signals have not indicated that anything lasting is in effect with respect to an ‘inflation trade’.  Have a look at the Silver-Gold ratio for just one example of a non-signal.

While we have reviewed bullish daily charts on items like base metals and energy, the fact is that Crude Oil and Doctor Copper are firmly in long-term downtrends. Don’t fall for the hype of the ‘save yourself from the dollar collapse, buy resources and hard assets!!’ brigade.

While oil may indeed be bottoming (per this NFTRH chart first presented several weeks ago), a bottoming process could grind on for some months.  We have had a great trade in energy (XLE) but these big picture events do not usually turn on a dime.

As for the good Doctor, he still targets 1.50/lb. as I have been parroting for years now.  When he gets through that moving average and/or macro signals start to come in, maybe I will change that tune; but not until.