Oil Prices Surge And Dollar Gains Extended Post Withdrawal Announcement

The US dollar is broadly higher as the 10-year yield probes above 3.0%. Disappointing French industrial production and manufacturing data for March provided additional incentive, as if it were needed, to extend the euro’s losses. The euro dipped below $1.1825. The single currency is off a cent this week after falling nearly two last week. A 38.2% retracement of the euro’s gains since the beginning of last year is found a little above $1.1700 and represents the next important target.  

The dollar is drawing closer to the JPY110 cap that turned it back last. There is a $545 mln option struck there that expires today. The dollar is above its 200-day moving average against most of the major currencies,  save the Japanese yen. It is found near JPY110.20. The high from early February is found near JPY110.50.  

Sterling is weaker but the shelf carved in recent sessions around $1.3485 remains intact. There is a GBP222 mln option at $1.3525 that expires today. The $1.3560 area offers a nearby cap. The news flow is anything but good. The BRC reported a 4.2% drop in April same-store sales and a 3.1% decline overall, which is the largest since the time series began in 1995. A separate private survey showed business, especially in retail, with the weakest demand in four months. The Easter holiday, no doubt, skewed the data, but the signal is weak and that is consistent with the recent UK data.   

On top of that, the House of Lords passed additional amendments to the government’s Withdrawal Bill. The House of Commons will likely unwind many if not most of the amendments, but likely not all, and this leaves the government’s ultimate position unclear with a little more than nine months before the exit.   

Cross rate demand for sterling may be helping it be a little resilient to the dollar. The euro has been sold from GBP0.8850 at the end of last week to GBP0.8750 today. Trendline support from the lows in the middle of last month is found just below there today, which also corresponds to a 50% retracement of that advance. It seems like it is at least partly a question of relative positioning, with the speculative market, judging from the futures activity, as of a week ago, still extremely long euros.