Oil Waves

Judging by the ES and NQ, it seems the world has already moved on from the big political news about Manafort and Cohen. BTFD to infinity!

So let’s turn our attention to crude oil, which is up over 2% this morning alone. This certainly seems to be the bulliest of the bullish:

As always, though, let’s keep things in perspective. Over the course of the past couple months, we’ve been lurching lower, and explosive moves like the ones above have all been part of the recipe.

Stepping much, much farther back, I think you can see how the long-term direction of oil is more vulnerable to a trendline break than it is a suddenly breakout to the upside. Being Wednesday, we’ll have the weekly inventory news very soon (or it’s already happened, depending on when you read this post), but setting aside these daily jiggles, I’m more inclined to think that oil will be lower this autumn than higher in price.