One Of The Most Accurate Forecasters Of 2016: “S&P Is The Most Overbought Since 2009: Sell!”

Lately being a bear has meant sharing quite a crowded field. First it was JPMorgan, which not only said to sell any rallies, but three weeks ago said it had gone “underweight stocks for the first time since the financial crisis”; then technicians such as Evercore ISI summarized their sentiment as follows “I’m out; my bullish tactical call is over”, and then on Monday, even Goldman jumped on the bandwagon urging clients”to go to cash” ahead of “expected elevated volatility” and that the “current relief rally” is almost over.

Today, it’s the turn of UBS’ technicians, Michael Riesner and Marc Muller, best known for calling both of the last two market selloffs in advance (and the concurrent jump in gold), as well as timing the Feb.11 market bottom with uncanny accuracy, when they joined the bearish chorus with one simple plea: “SPX Reaching 2050 Target … Take Profit/Sell!”

This is their call in a nutshell:

Last week, we saw the suggested overshooting into expiration and the SPX reached the upper end of our projected late Q1/early Q2 target at 2050, which leaves the short-term picture in the US unchanged as to what we highlighted last week. With the rally of the last few weeks and looking at our daily trend work, the SPX has reached its most overbought position since 2009!! Together with significant non-confirmations in our medium-term momentum work, and trading in the time window of our late Q1/early Q2 top projection, we see the market vulnerable for a significant reversal this week, which we would see as the beginning of a tactical top building process and subsequent correction into deeper Q2. We reiterate our last week’s comment and would not chase the market on current elevated levels.

The details: