Online Retail? You’re Talking Amazon

The major indexes are on track to start today’s session modestly in the green despite the Paris events over the weekend. We have a relatively light data docket today, but the rest of this week packs a lot of Retail sector earnings reports. On the economic front, housing starts and inflation readings may not have Fed implications, though some are likely hoping that the heightened geopolitical risks following the Paris events will prompt the Fed to stand back from starting the tightening process next month.

Last week’s reports from Macy’s (M – Analyst Report), Nordstrom (JWN – Analyst Report) and others showed the department stores’ weak earnings outlook for the holidays quarter, with above-average inventory levels forcing these operators to offer deep discounts to move merchandise. Wal-Mart (WMT), Target (TGT), Home Depot (HD) and others reporting this week round out the sector’s earnings picture, though no major surprises are expected from Wal-Mart as it shared its weak outlook with us last month. This has overall been a weak earnings season for the sector even though the restaurant and online operators gave it a good start.

The problem isn’t consumer spending, which hasn’t increased to the extent many expected on account of energy savings. But it’s not bad either. Households appear to be squirreling away part of the energy savings, but they have been spending on things like autos, household items, restaurants and, most importantly, at online vendors. And when we talk about online shopping, we are really talking about Amazon (AMZN – Analyst Report). Most of the traditional operators have belatedly started investing in their digital operations as well, but Amazon has become the leader of the digital retail space in a big way.

The divergence in the stock prices of bellwethers like Macy’s and Wal-Mart relative to Amazon tell this story clearly – Amazon shares are up more than +100% in the year-to-date period, while Wal-Mart and Macy’s have lost roughly a third of their values in that same time period.