Only Minor Top Ahead

We are approaching the full count from the 2500 re-accumulation level, but it is likely that we will get there through a series of fits and starts and not directly. This will be dictated by the very nature of the market itself that requires that projection targets be reached in a structured manner which is the essence of price progression. Cycles also play a complementary role and, except for a minor cycle which is on the verge of bottoming, there are none capable of moving the market appreciably to the downside and ready to make their lows imminently ahead. In fact, the soonest we can expect an important correction to start is probably still at least a couple of weeks away. In the meantime, higher prices are likely.

The steady move upward without any significant pull-back has frustrated the bears, but under the current market conditions, there is little for them to do but grit their teeth and learn patience. The simplest way to assess what’s ahead is to look at a weekly and a daily chart. The weekly indicators are at their highest levels since last October, surpassing in height everything in between. This is proof that the market is not nearly ready to have an important correction. Negative divergence will have to show before this happens, as it did in June 2015 and August 2016. Even the daily oscillators will need to complete a topping formation before becoming negative. They may just be starting to do this; and future trend lines will have to show deceleration by connecting lows at less steep angles. All this must happen before we can expect a good correction to take place.  

Analysis: (These Charts and subsequent ones courtesy of QCharts.com)

Daily chart    

Some deceleration is appearing in the intermediate-term trend, as shown by the inability of the index to rise to the top of the blue channel, but none is evident in the short-term trend since price has risen all the way to the top of a secondary (green) channel where it is beginning to flatten out as it encounters resistance. That, and the fact that all the oscillators are showing negative divergence is an indication that a reversal is about to take place, but I would not bet on its being anything other than one of a minor nature.