Post-Patriotic, Pre-Market

I trust everyone had a safe and enjoyable Independence Day. My family watched about seven different shows from our lofty air-conditioned perch, while I played Sousa music through a laptop. It isn’t exactly like being there, but it’s awfully close.

Looking at the markets this pre-market, the ES is doing a whole lot of nothing. I’ve tinted out what I’m hoping is a decent top, with 2412 being a key failure point.

Crude oil, my nemesis for the past couple of weeks, is showing some weakness. I am trying to caution myself against shorting like crazy in the energy sector, since I don’t want to do so based on merely the slightly sign of weakness. As I’ve pointed out before, the longevity of prior counter-trend bounces has been around 13-14 days, and that puts us into next Monday, at least. So I’m going to try to control myself.

The Nasdaq had a wild ride over the holiday, but at the moment, it’s actually showing signs of life. I’m holding on to my QID, however, with an eye toward this being a more meaningful top.

Lastly, gold – as we all know, gold has three principal functions (a) a store of value (b) a highly-malleable metal for industry (c) helping people lose money for the past six years. It’s performing its third function particularly well lately, and my ETF position JDST I also intend to retain.