The next couple of weeks are going to be huge for global markets. Presidential elections sit on the calendar for the Tuesday after next, but before we get to that we have a plethora of economic data prints and rate decisions to get through; including a widely-watched meeting from the Federal Reserve in which markets will hope to get a better idea of just how hawkish the bank might be for their December rate decision.
The highlight of the week will likely be the bevy of Central Bank meetings and rate decisions, taking place each day Monday through Thursday. And once we get to Friday, we get Non-Farm Payrolls and Canadian employment numbers; and then the week after brings us the widely-awaited (and probably feared) U.S. Presidential elections. So buckle up – the next couple of weeks will see markets in a highly vulnerable state as the world wades through a series of pressure points.
Below, we take a look at the Central Bank meetings next week that are likely to garner the most attention.
RBA on Monday Night (Tuesday Morning in AU)
The RBA probably isn’t going to be doing much anytime soon, likely not until at least early/mid 2017. Dr. Phillip Lowe has just taken over at the head of the Central Bank after his predecessor, Glenn Stevens, sat atop the bank for more than ten years. Last month was Mr. Lowe’s first rate decision with the RBA, and he struck a very balanced tone with an eye on the big picture. While many Central Banks are continuing to fret over lagging inflation, Dr. Lowe took a big picture view in explaining that the bank’s goal is the long-term average and keeping inflation anchored close to the bank’s 2-3% target; rather than working to get each and every inflationary print perfectly within the 2-3% range.
On a technical basis, AUD/USD has been fighting with a zone of resistance around the .7700-handle for the past 2.5-3 months while putting in lower-highs, and even the recent ramp of U.S. Dollar strength has been unable to break the pair below significant support. If price action next week can break below near-term support at .7450, then the big, confluent batch of support around the .7200-handle could become a very opportune target.
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