So far, my calls have been pretty accurate this year. (700% VRX winners, I’m looking at you.)
In December 2015, I turned in a bearish market forecast that was at direct odds with most Wall Street analysts. I pointed out that none of the factors pressuring markets are going away and that a big sell-off across the board – followed by a multi-year bear market – is likely. Then I got into specifics, including my year-end S&P 500 target (which I later revised even lower), the U.S. GDP, and even the presidential election winner.
But my stock recommendations, for the most part, have been spot on.
As I write this, a couple of our long plays are up over 50%, and we’ve also got one spectacular short that’s down 50% since the beginning of the year. (It’s not even DB – that stinker is down a mere 36%.)
Here’s the full report…
Our Long Plays
As you can see, I only have two long recommendations that are pure stocks. The rest are gold-related, volatility-related, or mortgage REITs. Not surprisingly, the gold-related stocks are doing the best – and I’m happy to see that my willingness to take a chance on the gold miners (GLDX and GDXJ) is paying dividends. I don’t typically recommend the miners, but when I made these calls last year, I reasoned that these gold miners are a very leveraged bet on a recovery in gold and are so out of favor that they are worth a shot. Further, I recommended the ETFs rather than individual stocks to mitigate the individual operating issues associated with individual companies. So far these picks have worked out well and I continue to recommend them.
Gold-related investments are long-term picks that can easily take more than one year to work out because gold is a generational play. But after the first three months of the year, they’re already turning in quite an impressive performance. If you bought them, I’m happy for you. My full list of gold recommendations, of course, is here.
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