US economic growth is on track to decelerate in the fourth quarter, according to The Capital Spectator’s average estimate via several econometric forecasts. Q4 GDP is projected to rise at a sluggish 1.5% rate (seasonally adjusted annual rate), down from the 2.1% advance in Q3.
Today’s updated Q4 estimate represents a modest decline from last month’s 2.0% Q4 prediction.
Forecasts from other sources reflect a relatively wide range of expectations for this year’s final quarter. Among the more optimistic predictions: The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey data, which sees Q4 GDP rising 2.2%–a fractional improvement over Q3–via the average forecast of economists. By contrast, Wells Fargo earlier this month pegged Q4 growth at a weak 1.1% increase.
Meanwhile, Q3 GDP is due for an update tomorrow. Econoday.com’s consensus forecast sees the current 2.1% estimate ticking down to 2.0% when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its third estimate for Q3 data on Tuesday, Dec. 22.
Looking ahead to the new year, some economists reason that last week’s approval of a new spending and tax-cut package by Congress could juice growth a bit in 2016 as the federal government offers a degree of fiscal stimulus. “This shift … is currently being overlooked by financial markets and analysts,” opines Joseph Carson, an economist at Alliance Bernstein. “We believe this will be a key aspect of a more positive and faster growth environment for next year.”
As for this year’s Q4 GDP report, which is scheduled to be released on Jan. 29, here’s a review of estimates from various sources:
Here are the various forecasts that are used to calculate CapitalSpectator.com’s average estimate:
As updated estimates are published, based on incoming economic data, the chart below tracks the changes in the evolution of The Capital Spectator’s projections.
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