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 Research firm McKinsey estimates that, despite the fact that currently only about 20 companies are working on quantum computer processors and chips, there will be about 5,000 operational quantum computers by then. and conceding that, while practical QC is still years away, it will change the world when it arrives.The above being said, however, Edd Gent reports in a lengthy article posted on Spectrum IEEE (a must read, nevertheless) entitled Quantum Computing’s Hard, Cold Reality Check – Hype is everywhere, skeptics say, and practical applications are still far away, that the quantum computer revolution may be further off and more limited than many have been led to believe, pointing out that:

  • Meta’s head of AI research Yann LeCun, is skeptical on quantum computing and is not convinced of “the possibility of actually fabricating quantum computers that are actually useful” (Source) and, as such, unlike Google, Microsoft and other tech giants, Meta is not making a big bet on quantum computing.
  • Oskar Painter, head of quantum hardware for Amazon Web Services, points out that because today’s quantum computers are very prone to errors quantum error-correction schemes will be key to achieving practical quantum computers but that “realizing a fault-tolerant quantum computer…[is] at least a decade out”.
  • Matthias Troyer who leads Microsoft’s quantum computing efforts, co-authored a paper in Communications of the ACM suggesting that the number of applications where quantum computers could provide a meaningful advantage was more limited than some might have you believe. He concluded that quantum computers will only really shine on small-data problems with exponential speed ups and that “all the rest is beautiful theory, but will not be practical.”

    • Given the above pessimism in the future of QC it is important to keep abreast of changes in the stock prices of the major companies involved in its research and development and the munKNEE Quantum Computing Hardware Developers Index does just that. The Index consists of 9 such companies trading on American stock exchanges and are presented below in descending order as to their performances so far in December (i.e. MTD) and YTD.

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): up 22.4% MTD; up 136.9% YTD

    • focuses on CPUs and GPUs and has launched its MI300X, the most powerful AI chip in history with the power of 2.4 times that of Nvidia’s top devices in just one chip as well as 1.6 times the memory bandwidth.
  • Micron Technology (MU): up 12.3% MTD; up 74.1% YTD

    • began sampling its own HBM3 chips in July which are a 50% improvement in bandwidth over currently available solutions with mass production expected to begin early in calendar 2024, and meaningful revenue from this product in fiscal 2024.
  • Intel (INTC): up 12.1% MTD; up 89.7% YTD

    • is developing its QC chips using silicon and, while not set on regaining dominance in the semiconductor industry, it could become an important segment in integrated chip design if research yields positive results.
  • Honeywell International (HON): up 6.9% MTD; down 2.3% YTD

    • has merged its quantum computer unit with Cambridge Quantum Computing into an entity called Quantinuum with a 54% ownership stake.
  • D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): up 4.9% MTD; down 40.3% YTD 

    • is the leading provider of QC systems and software with a focus on quantum annealing technology.
  • IBM (IBM): up 2.9% MTD; up 16.2% YTD

    • has its own QC chips and systems, which are available for commercial use via its Quantum business unit.
  • IonQ (IONQ): up 1.4% MTD; up 259.4% YTD

    • develops QC hardware, is the first to have its computing systems available via all the major public cloud services, and plans to build a network of quantum computers accessible via the cloud.
  • Baidu (BIDU): up 0.3% MTD; up 3.6% YTD

    • has pioneered the development of a comprehensive quantum hardware-software integration solution, enabling access to a wide range of quantum chips through various platforms.
  • Rigetti Computing (RGTI): down 6.6% MTD; up 35.6% YTD

    • specializes in superconducting qubit technology and has developed a suite of software tools and algorithms for programming and simulating quantum computations.

    • Alibaba Group (BABA) is shuttering its quantum computing research lab and, as such, has been removed from the Index.
     SummaryOn average, the above 9 QC stocks are up 8.3% MTD and are now up 28.8% YTD.There are an additional 4 mega-cap companies very active in QC research and development namely: Microsoft  (MSFT), Nvidia Corporation (NVDA),  Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) that are not included in the above index due to their extremely large market capitalizations.If you are interested in investing in this sector as a whole, consider the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) which consists of 35 semiconductor stocks (including the 9 stocks in our Quantum Computing Hardware Developers Index and the 4 mega-cap companies. It is up 11.7% MTD and up 70.0% YTD.More By This Author:Cybersecurity Software Stocks Index Up 8% In December; Up 80% YTD
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