Week 48 of 2015 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic squeaked into expansion year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements and weekly railcar counts continued deeply in contraction.
This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).
A summary of the data from the AAR:
The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Dec. 5, 2015.
For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 542,050 carloads and intermodal units, down 6.6 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending Dec. 5 were 271,774 carloads, down 12.9 percent compared with the same week in 2014, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 270,276 containers and trailers, up 0.8 percent compared to 2014.
Two of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2014. They were miscellaneous carloads, up 15.5 percent to 9,063 carloads; and motor vehicles and parts, up 1.8 percent to 19,025 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2014 included metallic ores and metals, down 24.6 percent to 21,318 carloads; coal, down 21.8 percent to 92,820 carloads; and petroleum and petroleum products, down 14.4 percent to 13,589 carloads.
For the first 48 weeks of 2015, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 13,318,535 carloads, down 5.3 percent from the same point last year; and 12,801,015 intermodal units, up 1.8 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 48 weeks of 2015 was 26,119,550 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 1.9 percent compared to last year.
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