Rail Week Ending January 9, 2016: Year Begins In Contraction

Week 1 of 2016 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) declined according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data. Intermodal traffic remained in expansion year-over-year, which accounts for approximately half of movements but the weekly railcar counts remained deeply in contraction.

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads and intermodal combined).

  Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago 4 week rolling average -14.7 % decelerating accelerating 13 week rolling average -8.2 % decelerating decelerating 52 week rolling average -2.7 % decelerating decelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported U.S. rail traffic for the week ending Jan. 9, 2016.

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 498,160 carloads and intermodal units, down 3.7 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending Jan. 9 were 239,221 carloads, down 13.5 percent compared with the same week in 2015, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 258,939 containers and trailers, up 7.5 percent compared to 2015.

Five of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2015. They included miscellaneous carloads, up 23 percent to 8,552 carloads; motor vehicles and parts, up 10.6 percent to 13,276 carloads; and chemicals, up 6.2 percent to 32,302 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2015 included coal, down 30.7 percent to 75,112 carloads; metallic ores and metals, down 18.1 percent to 19,419 carloads; and petroleum and petroleum products, down 15.1 percent to 13,096 carloads.

For the first week of 2016, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 239,221 carloads, down 13.5 percent from the same point last year; and 258,939 intermodal units, up 7.5 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first week of 2016 was 498,160 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 3.7 percent compared to last year.