Rail Week Ending Saturday, August 4: Economically Intuitive Sectors Rate Of Growth Slowing

Week 31 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data.

Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data

We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis for carloads, this week it expanded 1.7 %. We primarily use rolling averages the analyze the data due to weekly volatility – and the 4 week rolling average for the intuitive sectors slowed from 5.8 % to 4.4 %.

Intermodal transport growth remains strong year-over-year.

The following graph compares the four-week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):

 

Rail’s growth rate is improving (and is better than GDP growth).

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).

  Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago 4 week rolling average +2.8 % accelerating decelerating 13 week rolling average +3.1 % accelerating decelerating 52 week rolling average +2.4 % accelerating decelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 570,995 carloads and intermodal units, up 4.2 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending August 4 were 279,907 carloads, up 3 percent compared with the same week in 2017, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 291,088 containers and trailers, up 5.4 percent compared to 2017.

Eight of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2017. They included grain, up 4,204 carloads, to 25,060; petroleum and petroleum products, up 1,456 carloads, to 10,837; and motor vehicles and parts, up 1,111 carloads, to 16,709. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2017 were miscellaneous carloads, down 1,039 carloads, to 10,227; and nonmetallic minerals, down 508 carloads, to 38,410.

For the first 31 weeks of 2018, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 8,075,614 carloads, up 1.6 percent from the same point last year; and 8,552,787 intermodal units, up 6.1 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 31 weeks of 2018 was 16,628,401 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 3.9 percent compared to last year.