Rail Week Ending Saturday, September 8: Economic Intuitive Portions Strong

Week 36 of 2018 shows same week total rail traffic (from same week one year ago) improved according to the Association of American Railroads (AAR) traffic data.

Analyst Opinion of the Rail Data

This was again a very strong week for rail.

We review this data set to understand the economy. If coal and grain are removed from the analysis for carloads, this week it expanded 16.9 %. We primarily use rolling averages the analyze the data due to weekly volatility – and the 4 week rolling average for the intuitive sectors improved from 7.1 % to 8.0 %.

Intermodal transport growth remains strong year-over-year.

The following graph compares the four week moving averages for carload economically intuitive sectors (red line) vs. total movements (blue line):

This analysis is looking for clues in the rail data to show the direction of economic activity – and is not necessarily looking for clues of profitability of the railroads. The weekly data is fairly noisy, and the best way to view it is to look at the rolling averages (carloads [including coal and grain] and intermodal combined).

  Percent current rolling average is larger than the rolling average of one year ago Current quantities accelerating or decelerating Current rolling average accelerating or decelerating compared to the rolling average one year ago 4 week rolling average +3.6 % decelerating accelerating 13 week rolling average +3.2 % decelerating accelerating 52 week rolling average +2.5 % accelerating accelerating

A summary of the data from the AAR:

For this week, total U.S. weekly rail traffic was 502,208 carloads and intermodal units, up 4.1 percent compared with the same week last year.

Total carloads for the week ending September 8 were 253,293 carloads, up 2.6 percent compared with the same week in 2017, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 248,915 containers and trailers, up 5.8 percent compared to 2017.

Nine of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2017. They included petroleum and petroleum products, up 3,724 carloads, to 11,649; grain, up 2,657 carloads, to 20,019; and nonmetallic minerals, up 2,419 carloads, to 35,209. One commodity group posted a decrease compared with the same week in 2017: coal, down 6,877 carloads, to 85,466.

For the first 36 weeks of 2018, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 9,435,026 carloads, up 1.9 percent from the same point last year; and 9,953,534 intermodal units, up 6 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 36 weeks of 2018 was 19,388,560 carloads and intermodal units, an increase of 4 percent compared to last year.