Rallies Run Into Channel Resistance

The initial bounces off spike lows have encountered their first major test of supply with pushes into newly drawn channel resistance. All indices are mapping this price action.

First up is the S&P. Today’s action finished with a spike high bang on channel resistance. Technicals are negative with the exception of relative performance, which has been tracking higher since September. Shorts may look to attack here and are likely expected to do so – if they don’t emerge then we can think about Fibonacci retracements of the entire September-October move.

It was a similar story for the Nasdaq except it’s underperforming relatively (vs the S&P) but did register higher volume accumulation. Rate-of-Change has drifted to the zero line which marks the switch from a bull market to a bear market.

The Russell 2000 didn’t enjoy the same leap higher as the Nasdaq and S&P but it did tag channel resistance. Shorts will be somewhat wary to get in here given the extent of the decline and a rally back to the 200-day MA would be a more attractive entry point.

For tomorrow, bulls will be wanting some follow through to break the momentum of the decline. If they can drive channel breakouts it will open up for moves to 200-day MAs and perhaps take indices all the way back to challenging summer levels.