Rate Rise Or Not, The Fed’s Not Pleasing Anyone This Week

Vancouver, British Columbia is one of the most beautiful cities in the world. It has a temperate climate, mountains in the background, and right now there is plenty of sunshine.

To make it even better, the Canadian dollar is trading at $0.75, which makes travel to Vancouver a bargain.

We just spent three days in the storied town at the 2015 Irrational Economic Summit. The event was as great as it sounds. But no matter how much we enjoyed the location, speakers, and attendees, there was a cloud hanging over the meeting.

It was the same cloud that’s been hanging over the financial markets and, to a degree, the financial world for months – the Fed.

Everyone’s grumbling about this week’s decision on raising rates. This is odd because no one knows what the decision will be. It would make sense that at least some group would be thrilled to see the Fed either raise rates or stand pat, but I can’t find anyone with that point of view.

This doesn’t mean people don’t have opinions on what the Fed should do. Everyone on television, in print, or talking at a conference can tell you why the Fed should or should not raise rates. But no one’s happy about it. And that’s the rub.

People who want the Fed to hold off point to weakness around the world and the knock-on effects of higher rates.

The Chinese economy is slowing down. If rates move higher, then the U.S. dollar will strengthen, pushing up the yuan because it is pegged to the U.S. dollar. The Chinese just devalued their currency, then spent over $100 billion trying to keep it within a narrow trading band. Anything that upsets this balancing act will require more Chinese intervention.

At the same time, a stronger dollar will entice investors to pull more capital out of emerging markets as they seek higher gains in the buck. This would make these fragile, natural-resource providers vulnerable to currency runs reminiscent of the late 1990s.

Here at home, a stronger dollar will make our exports more expensive to foreign buyers. This will drive down the earnings of multinational companies at the same time that they’re dealing with weak economies abroad.