RBNZ Monetary Policy Preview – March 2016

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold rates steady at tomorrow’s meeting but could risk talking down the Kiwi’s exchange rate.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be holding its monetary policy meeting on March 9th. Heading into the event, expectations are close to a broad consensus expecting the RBNZ to hold rates steady at 2.50%. However, the decision could be a close call with inflation in the fourth quarter of 2015 declining -0.50%, more than the expected -0.20% and down from 0.30% rise in inflation in the third quarter. The RBNZ’s inflation target range is between 1.0% and 2.0%.

Going solely by inflation, the RBNZ keeps a close watch on inflation expectations, which as of February’s release saw a decline from 1.90% to 1.60%. In the Bank’s last monetary policy meeting in January 2016, rates were held at 2.50%.

In the January monetary policy statement, the RBNZ noted that “there has been some easing in financial conditions, as the New Zealand dollar exchange rate and market interest rates have declined. A further depreciation in the exchange rate is appropriate given the ongoing weakness in export prices“

Since January 28th, 2016, the NZD/USD has appreciated strongly, gaining of 5.12% by last Friday’s (04/03) close at $0.681, erasing the previous period’s decline of -3.51% since the December 9th rate cut of 25bps. The Kiwi’s appreciation is likely to see the RBNZ come down strongly if the Central bank does manage to keep rates steady given that the main transmission mechanism for the rate cut to stimulate inflation is via a weaker New Zealand Dollar.

Looking ahead, the markets expect to see another rate cut by June 2016, bringing the OCR rate to 2.0% and there is speculation that another rate cut could be delivered by September 2016. However, for the moment, the RBNZ is likely to hold rates steady and try to talk down the Kiwi’s exchange rate while waiting for more economic data.