Meltup groundhog day continues as global equity markets begin 2018 with another day of record highs and with their best week in more than a year, extending last year’s rally that has seen volatility plunge and risk appetite surge.
The new year’s ramp to new record highs in stock markets around the world continued for a fourth day on Friday when U.S. equity index futures, European and Asian shares all rose, as did the dollar while oil dropped ahead of the US payrolls report. MSCI’s gauge of world stocks was up 0.15%, above 524 points and at a fresh record high.
European markets opened firmer after Asian shares approached record levels. The pan-European STOXX 600 index was up 0.5%, holding at a two-month high, and the first trading week of the new year looks set to be the best for Eurozone stocks since May, as shares shrug off a stronger single currency that could dampen export earnings. Automakers and healthcare stocks outperformed.
Europe’s surge followed more upside in Asia, where stock indexes in Japan, South Korea, and China all rose after U.S. shares surged to fresh records Thursday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.5%, rising for a fourth day to cap its best week since July 2017. Equity benchmarks in the region rose except those in Singapore and Vietnam. The benchmark Topix index is poised for a two-day advance of more than 3%. Materials and healthcare sub-gauges of Asia’s regional index led the gains, rising more than 0.7% each. Australia’s ASX 200 (+0.7%) continued to make fresh 10yr highs with the index finding support from financial and mining stocks. Nikkei 225 (+0.9%) had its best two day gain since November and probed 26yr highs amid the rise in banking stocks, while Chinese markets also posted gains (Shanghai Comp +0.2%, Hang Seng Index +0.3%). Emerging-market equities reached the highest since 2011.
European bonds were mixed and the euro slipped as data showed inflation in the region slowed. Euro-area inflation slowed to 1.4 percent last month from November’s 1.5 percent, and the underlying rate unexpectedly failed to accelerate, instead holding at 0.9%. As Bloomberg notes, the data highlight the challenge the ECB faces in judging when to unwind its crisis-era stimulus measures, even as some Governing Council members warn of the risks of postponing the decision for too long.
“It could be something of a roller-coaster ride for headline inflation because of oil prices, but what remains crucial is core,” Nick Kounis, head of financial markets research at ABN Amro in Amsterdam, said before the report. “If we’re going to see flattish core inflation prints – and if we see flattish wage prints – then that would make the ECB cautious.”
Today, traders will focus on the U.S. jobs data – and especially wage growth – after minutes released this week from the latest Fed policy meeting indicated most officials favored raising interest rates gradually. The euro stayed lower after data showed annual inflation in the currency bloc slowed in December.
Strategists at Credit Agricole, including Valentin Marinov, said while there was an “upside risk” to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls figures, it would be the average hourly earnings numbers that “should prove to be the most important metric.” “We suspect the dollar will struggle to get much support from a solid headline NFP print in the absence of an acceleration in wage growth,” they wrote in a client note.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended gains after trading near three-month lows, as investors look to U.S. employment data, with Street whisper numbers pointing to larger job gains compared with the economist consensus forecast of +190K. The EURUSD hovered near day lows after core euro area inflation missed estimates. Treasury futures drift lower to push cash yields higher cross the curve; 10-year U.S.-German yield gap widens, partly retracing end-2017 compression.
Asia’s emerging-market currencies advanced this week amid continuing weakness in the dollar and as optimism over global growth spurred demand for developing-nation assets. The MSCI EM Asia Index had its best week since July, while sovereign bonds fell. Asia has “promising growth momentum and resilient external positions,” said Frances Cheung, head of Asia Macro strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. in Singapore. The yen dropped for a third day as investors waited for U.S. jobs data. The Australian dollar declined after November trade figures showed an unexpected deficit, while the New Zealand dollar was steady near a two-month high
Oil prices slipped from highs last seen in 2015 after soaring U.S. production undermined a 10-percent rally from lows hit in December driven by tightening supply and political tensions in Iran, and as oil neared a key resistance level.
Gold prices dipped from the previous session’s 3-1/2 month high, ahead of the U.S. non-farm payroll data, but remained on track for their fourth straight weekly gain.
The 10-year U.S. Treasuries yield stood at 2.460% below its seven-month peak of 2.504% touched on Dec. 21. Germany’s 10-year yield was unchanged at 0.43%, Britain’s 10-year yield fell one basis point to 1.227% while Japan’s 10-year yield rose 1 bp to 0.063%, the highest in more than two months.
Signs of the investor appetite for risk more broadly were evident in Greece, where the eurozone member’s 10-year borrowing costs hit their lowest in 12 years on Friday. The country, recently on the verge of defaulting on its debts, has benefited from expectations of a clean exit from its bailout this year and a revival in the economy.
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