Friday on Mish’s Market Minute Daily Facebook page, I introduced the second Modern Family cartoon character, Grandma Retail. As the megatrend of online shopping increases exponentially, brick and mortar retail chains in malls have suffered. Considering the price of Amazon’s stock is trading above $1000, Nordstrom’s in comparison, trades at $47.00. That’s nearly half of its peak price in 2015 at $78.31. Compare that to Amazon’s peak price in 2015 at $696.44.
If you look at the Directory in the picture (Mall of Conspicuous Consumption), many of the stores we see in malls throughout the country are anything but conspicuously consumed. Perhaps the most dramatic example is J.C. Penney. In February 2008, the price of that stock peaked at 87.18. Presently, JCP trades at $5.00. A heartbeat away from filing for bankruptcy. Retail comprises 70% of the Gross Domestic Product in the US.
The Retail Sales reports reflect stats from 5000 retail outlets and food services. In June, the number fell by .2%. Grocery, department and hobby stores declined the most. With the stock market at new record highs, can online sales resuscitate Granny Retail? Given June’s decline, online retailers gained 10.1% over sales. The sector now makes up 12% of total retail sales. That leaves 88% of the number still dependent on brick and mortar stores and restaurants. Because of Granny’s angst, retailers are less likely to build new stores. This will hurt commercial real estate, neighborhood shopping centers, and jobs. Should we worry?
A robust economy will generate annual retail sales growth of 3 percent or more. Spending at retailers has grown 2.8 percent over the past 12 months. Amazingly, the overall market has ignored poor Granny thus far. The overall market yes. The Federal Reserve? They, in their quest to raise rates and reduce their balance sheet, will clearly watch retail numbers along with any impact it might have on employment statistics.
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