Retail sales were down according to US Census headline data. Our analysis shows the opposite.
Analyst Opinion of Retail Sales
Things to consider when viewing this data:
it is not inflation adjusted – and inflation in this sector is now running a little over 1.5 %.
the three month rolling averages of the unadjusted data improved.
our analysis says this month was an improvement over last month.
The relationship between year-over-year growth in inflation adjusted retail sales and retail employment are now correlating.
Backward data revisions were mixed.
Econintersect Analysis:
unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 1.8 % month-over-month, and up 5.2 % year-over-year.
unadjusted sales 3 month rolling year-over-year average growth accelerated 1.4 % month-over-month, 1.8 % year-over-year.
unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 1.3 % year-over-year
this is an advance report. Please see caveats below showing variations between the advance report and the “final”.
in the seasonally adjusted data – the major weakness was general mechandise stores. There was significant strength in non-store retailers, autos, and generally most items.
U.S. Census Headlines:
seasonally adjusted sales down 0.3 % month-over-month, up 3.8 % year-over-year.
the market was expecting (from Bloomberg / Econoday):
seasonally adjusted |
Consensus Range |
Consensus |
Actual |
Retail Sales – M/M change |
-0.2 % to 0.4 % |
+0.2 % |
-0.3% |
Retail Sales less autos – M/M change |
-0.2 % to 0.5 % |
+0.2 % |
-0.3 % |
Less Autos & Gas – M/M Change |
0.1 % to 0.5 % |
+0.3 % |
+0.0 % |
Control Group – M/M change |
0.2 % to 0.4 % |
+0.3 % |
+0.0 % |
Year-over-Year Change – Unadjusted Retail Sales (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted Retail Sales (red line)
Leave A Comment