Retail sales were down according to US Census headline data. The unadjusted rolling averages were little changed.

Analyst Opinion of Retail Sales

Despite the headlines, this was not a bad report – especially if one considers the rolling averages.

Things to consider when viewing this data:

  • it is not inflation adjusted.
  • the three month rolling averages of the unadjusted data was little changed
  • our analysis says this month’s growth was above average for the growth seen in the last 12 months..

    • The relationship between year-over-year growth in inflation adjusted retail sales and retail employment do not correlate.

    Backward data revisions were upward.

    Econintersect Analysis:

  • unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 1.4 % month-over-month, and up5.1 % year-over-year.
  • unadjusted sales 3 month rolling year-over-year average growth accelerated 0.1 % month-over-month, up 5.1 % year-over-year.

     

  • unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 3.5 % year-over-year
  • this is an advance report. Please see caveats below showing variations between the advance report and the “final”.
  • in the seasonally adjusted data – the major weakness were widespread. There was significant strength innon-store retailers.

    • U.S. Census Headlines:

  • seasonally adjusted sales down 0.3 % month-over-month, up 3.6 % year-over-year.
  • the market was expecting (from Bloomberg / Econoday):
    • seasonally adjusted Consensus Range Consensus Actual Retail Sales – M/M change 0.0 % to 0.5 % +0.3 % -0.3 % Retail Sales less autos – M/M change 0.1 % to 0.8 % +0.5 % +0.0 % Less Autos & Gas – M/M Change 0.2 % to 0.5 % +0.4 % -0.2 % Control Group – M/M change 0.2 % to 0.5 % +0.4 % +0.0 %

    Year-over-Year Change – Unadjusted Retail Sales (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted Retail Sales (red line)

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