Retail sales were up according to US Census headline data – but slightly below expectations. The unadjusted rolling average improved.

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Analyst Opinion of Retail Sales

Things to consider when viewing this data:

  • it is not inflation adjusted – and inflation in this sector is now running near 1.5 %.
  • the three month rolling averages of the unadjusted data improved
  • our analysis says this month was better than last month.
  • wonder water percentage of the gains were hurricane related.

    • The relationship between year-over-year growth in inflation adjusted retail sales and retail employment are now correlating.

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    Backward data revisions were upward.

    Econintersect Analysis:

  • unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 0.2 % month-over-month, and up4.1 % year-over-year.
  • unadjusted sales 3 month rolling year-over-year average growth accelerated 0.1 % month-over-month, up 3.6 % year-over-year.

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  • unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 2.8 % year-over-year
  • this is an advance report. Please see caveats below showing variations between the advance report and the “final”.
  • in the seasonally adjusted data – the major weakness was electronics, appliance, department stores and personal care stores. There was significant strength in motor vehicles, gasoline, and food services.

    • U.S. Census Headlines:

  • seasonally adjusted sales up 1.6 % month-over-month, up 4.4 % year-over-year.
  • the market was expecting (from Bloomberg / Econoday):
    • seasonally adjusted Consensus Range Consensus Actual Retail Sales – M/M change 0.7 % to 2.6 % +1.9 % +1.6 % Retail Sales less autos – M/M change 0.1 % to 1.9 % +0.8 % +1.0 % Less Autos & Gas – M/M Change 0.2 % to 0.6 % +0.4 % +0.5 % Control Group – M/M change 0.2 % to 0.4 % +0.2 % +0.4 %

    Year-over-Year Change – Unadjusted Retail Sales (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted Retail Sales (red line)

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