Retail Sales Weren’t All That Bad, Meaning They Were The Worst

Taken in comparison to the last few years, today’s retail sales report wasn’t that bad. Total sales for May 2017, including autos, grew by 5.17% year-over-year (NSA). That was the highest growth rate since last February. The 6-month average is now just shy of 4%, the best since early 2015. It is clear the US economy has shrugged off the effects of last year’s downturn.

What got most people’s attention was the negative monthly comparison in the seasonally-adjusted data. Even here, however, the reaction seems a little hyper-sensitive. Though down 0.3% month-over-month, retail sales in April were up by 0.4%. It’s not so much the downside as it is being far too uneven in the advance.

If we are identifying a trough using retail sales, the bottom was clearly January 2016. It only makes sense given all that was going on at that moment in time. But that means, in June 2017 analyzing the economy with statistics from May, that nearly a year and a half has already passed since that point. There is clearly improvement and positive action; it just isn’t working out the way it is supposed to.

Growth rates of 5% are fine when compared to what was for too long a constant 3%. In truth, however, that 5% needs to be judged by the downturn that brought those many 3% months as well as the historical context where 6% growth was something of a minimum to be counted as normal (actual growth). What is clearly missing is that momentum, where after fifteen months on the upswing is more than enough time for it to have arrived by now. We still haven’t pushed back above the floor, to say nothing of making up for two years of lost growth.

The harsh reaction to the seasonally-adjusted negative makes sense. It posits this far along that growth is just not there. The US consumer for all his and her improvement is not anywhere close to normal. By every reasonable expectation, retail sales should be growing by closer to 10% right now than stuck around 4% (average). It is disconcerting to find growth reminiscent of 2014 rather than 2004.