Seasonal Decorations Order Of The Day

The revisions offered in this report were minimal and certainly not statistically significant. The most material revision was provided by the volatile, flaky and ultimately zero-reverting inventory data. If we had to ignore the noise and provide some “take away” from this report, they are probably as follows:

— In general, the economic growth provided by consumer spending is reported to be softening — although the data on consumer spending for services has arguably become less reliable as a direct consequence of Obamacare.

— The quarter-to-quarter increase in the household savings rate (to 5.2%) goes a long way towards explaining the ongoing weak retail sales. Household monies that are no longer being spent at the gasoline pump are simply being saved. This implies that households are not particularly confident when looking forward.

— Once again the contribution of exports to the headline number is a mere one-sixth what it was in the second quarter. The soaring dollar and plunging global economy have likely caught up with US exporters. In coming quarters, we may look favorably back on a time when exports provided any growth at all.

— The core domestic economy seems to be transitioning to (at least) slower growth, with exports leading the way.

— The arguably high “deflators” utilized for this report may have skewed the headline number downward. For this reason alone, it is possible that the real economy may have been performing better than these numbers would lead us to believe.

There was probably nothing of consequence in this report: none of the reported revisions were statistically significant, and — based on historical precedence — all of this data will be materially revised next July.