Self-Deception Rules Two-Way Market Action

Let’s see we were higher last Friday by Dow 200 points, Monday down 200 points, Tuesday up 200 points, Wednesday down 200 points and Thursday up over 100 points.

Is that a victory for bulls? Hardly. 

Volatility is especially high to which you’d logically respond— “no kidding!”

Thursday’s rally didn’t exceed 200 points but bulls are watching crude oil price gains like a bottom is now in. But is it really? If you believe the questionable notions that OPEC and Russia can lower production by 5% and would do so without cheating, then I have a bridge to sell you.

Lower highs and lower lows remains the bearish factor for markets. That price action has continued all of January and remains firmly in place.

Sure, markets remain oversold even on an intermediate basis (see $NYSI below) so it allows for hoped-for rallies but nothing consistent or durable.

Economic data Thursday was miserable. Durable Goods Orders imploded to on -5.1% with readings ex-Transportation down -1.2% and Core Durable Goods Orders weak at -4.3%. There’s nothing positive to make of this reading and we look forward to Friday’s (manipulated) GDP Report.

The bottom line Thursday is stocks rallied on hope but not any news.

Market sectors moving higher included: Dow (DIA), S&P 500 (SPY), Nasdaq 100 (NDX), Crude Oil (USO), Energy Stocks (XLE), Tech (XLK), Utilities (XLU), Industrials (XLI), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Banks (KBE), Emerging Markets (EEM), Brazil (EWZ), China (FXI), Russia (RSX), South Korea (EWY), Taiwan (EWT), Australia (EWA), Canada (EWC), Asia ex-Japan (AAXJ), Mexico (EWW), South Africa (EZA) and so forth.

Market sectors moving lower included: Transports (IYT), Healthcare (XLV), Biotech (IBB), REITs (IYR), Volatility (VIX), Germany (EWG), Italy (EWI), Shanghai (ASHR), Gold (GLD), Gold Stocks (GDX), Silver (SLV) and basically a mixed bag.