Sell-Off Negated For Now

I would have loved to of seen a greater pullback in the market.

And maybe we still get it right here, but Friday’s bounce was highly problematic for the bears. Simply put, they had the market, as they have had time and time again, on the ropes, with a breakdown in key support. All that had to be done, was to make traders believe it was fore real this time by simply following through with more downside on Friday. Instead, it did what it always does and that is drive the market back up and wipe out the entire day’s price action. 

Watch the declining channel off of the May 26th highs that has formed and will look to have its upper band possibly tested today. Should that break, the bears are back in full control, and it will only be a matter of time before it is back at all-time highs. 

Meanwhile, if you are looking at the market from “where has it been” stand point, the box pattern that was broken on Thursday, should be viewed as a false signal, as price climbed decisively back inside the box on Friday. The VIX is back to its normal way of doing things as another pop has quickly dissolved with a 11% decline on Friday. I wouldn’t be surprised to see it trading below 10 again this week.

One of the few areas of this market sporting a solid trend is oil. It has been in a solid decline with lower-highs for much of the past year. The issue with oil for me has been the reports that can instantly stop you out of a trade, or worse yet, the large gaps that are often associated of late, with this commodity. But the daily chart though shows one of the few asset classes in a nice steady decline. 

And the market continues to avoid it such a decline or any kind of decline. Perhaps it will take a decline in oil to February of 2016’s lows. No way, if that area is tested or worse yet, broke, that this market can continue trending higher as a result. Just not happening. 

For now though, stay steady, with your trades, the market is trying to whip traders all over the place, so don’t overdue it in this market by trying to have too many positions open at this point in time.