September 2015 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Increased Moderately

Written by Doug Short and Steven Hansen

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index improved to 103.0 from the 101.5 reported last month. The market expected (from Bloomberg) this index to come in at 88.5 to 100.0 (consensus 96.0) versus the 103.0 reported.

This index has now improved to a point that its level is now commenserate with periods of economic expansion. Note that this data is considered preliminary, and the cutoff for these results was 17 September 2015.

Here is an excerpt from The Conference Board:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had increased in August, improved moderately in September. The Index now stands at 103.0 (1985=100), up from 101.3 in August. The Present Situation Index increased from 115.8 last month to 121.1 in September, while the Expectations Index edged down to 91.0 from 91.6 in August.

“Consumer confidence increased moderately in September, following August’s sharp rebound,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ more positive assessment of current conditions fueled this month’s increase, and drove the Present Situation Index to an 8-year high (Sept. 2007, Index=121.2). Consumers’ expectations for the short-term outlook, however, remained relatively flat, although there was a modest improvement in income expectations. Thus, while consumers view current economic conditions more favorably, they do not foresee growth accelerating in the months ahead.”

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was more positive in September. Those saying business conditions are “good” increased from 23.7 percent to 28.0 percent, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” declined modestly from 17.8 percent to 16.7 percent. Consumers were somewhat mixed about the job market. Those stating jobs are “plentiful” increased from 22.1 percent to 25.1 percent, however those claiming jobs are “hard to get” also rose from 21.7 percent to 24.3 percent.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook was little changed in September. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased from 16.6 percent to 17.9 percent, but those expecting business conditions to worsen also increased, from 9.1 percent to 10.3 percent.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was mixed. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead was virtually unchanged at 15.0 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased from 14.5 percent to 15.8 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase improved from 16.2 percent to 19.1 percent, while the proportion expecting a decline inched up from 9.8 percent to 10.1 percent.