The market expectations for weekly initial unemployment claims (from Nasdaq/Econoday) were 205 K to 210 K (consensus 210,000), and the Department of Labor reported 201,000 new claims. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average moved from 208,000 (reported last week as 208,000) to 205,750. The rolling averages generally have been equal to or under 300,000 since August 2014.
Analyst Opinion of Initial Unemployment Claims
This marks 180 consecutive weeks of initial claims below 300,000, the longest streak since 1970. The general trend of the 4 week rolling average is a slowing rate of improvement year-over-year which historically suggests a slowing economy.
It should be pointed out that Econintersect watches the year-over-year change on the 4 week moving average. There is always some seasonality which migrates into the seasonally adjusted data, and year-over-year comparisons helps remove some seasonality. The four week rolling average of initial claims are 23.4 % lower (better than the 20.8 % lower for last week) than they were in this same week a year ago.
Claim levels are at 40 year lows (with the normal range around 350,000 weekly initial unemployment claims of levels seen historically during times of economic expansion – see chart below).
From the Department of Labor:
In the week ending September 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 201,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 204,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since November 15, 1969 when it was 197,000. The 4-week moving average was 205,750, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 208,000. This is the lowest level for this average since December 6, 1969 when it was 204,500.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending September 8, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 8 was 1,645,000, a decrease of 55,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since August 4, 1973 when it was 1,633,000. The previous week’s level was revised up 4,000 from 1,696,000 to 1,700,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,691,500, a decrease of 20,750 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since November 17, 1973 when it was 1,686,000. The previous week’s average was revised up by 1,000 from 1,711,250 to 1,712,250.
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