September 25, 2015 – BEA Revises 2nd Quarter 2015 GDP Growth Upward Again, To 3.92%

In their third estimate of the US GDP for the second quarter of 2015, the Bureau of Economic Analysis  (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a 3.92% annualized rate, up +0.22% from their previous estimate and up +3.28% from the first quarter. 

This report included significant upward revisions to the growth rate contributions from consumer spending on services (up +0.30%) and commercial fixed investment (revised upward +0.17%). Inventory growth was revised downward by -0.20%, and all other segments of the economy were left essentially unchanged. 

Real annualized per capita disposable income was reported to be $37,835 per annum, down another $8 per year from the last estimate. The household savings rate was revised downward to 4.6% — now down over a half percent (-0.6%) from the prior quarter’s 5.2% rate. 

For this revision the BEA assumed an annualized deflator of 2.13%. During the same quarter (April 2015 through June 2015) the inflation recorded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in their CPI-U index was 3.52%. Under estimating inflation results in optimistic growth rates, and if the BEA’s “nominal” data was deflated using CPI-U inflation information the headline number would show a more modest +2.61% growth rate. 

Among the notable items in the report : 

— The headline contribution from consumer expenditures for goods was +1.20% (up +0.01% from the previous estimate). 

— The contribution to the headline from consumer services increased materially to +1.23% (up +0.30% from the previous report). The combined consumer contribution to the headline number was 2.43%, up +0.31% from the earlier estimate. 

— The headline contribution from commercial private fixed investments was revised upward to +0.83% — up +0.17% from prior report. 

— Inventory growth was revised to nearly flat, providing +0.02% of the headline number (down -0.20% from the previous estimate). 

— Governmental spending added +0.46% to the headline (down -0.01% from the earlier report). The revised growth remained almost entirely in state and local infrastructure investment. 

— Exports were slightly down from the last estimate, but still added +0.64% to the headline number (down -0.01% from the first estimate). 

— Imports subtracted more from the headline number (-0.46%) than previously reported (a change of -0.04%). 

— The “real final sales of domestic product” is now reported to be growing at a +3.90% annualized rate. This is the BEA’s “bottom line” measurement of the economy and it excludes the reported inventory growth. 

— And as mentioned above, real per-capita annual disposable income was revised slightly downward and the household savings rate also deteriorated. The real per-capita annual disposable income is up only +3.16% in aggregate since the second quarter of 2008 — a meager annualized +0.45% growth over the past 28 quarters.