Shorting The Federal Reserve

“I’ve never let my guard down by saying, I do not need to be hedged” – Paul Singer

Preservation of clients’ wealth is the most important fiduciary duty guiding investment managers.  This obligation tends to be under-appreciated in the midst of financial asset bubbles when recency bias blunts the desire to sacrifice the potential for further gains in exchange for protection against losses. Inevitably, this is made painfully clear when a bubble pops and those once popular assets lose value and the manager’s clientele suffer.We have repeatedly urged caution as valuations are currently stretched on the back of reckless Federal Reserve monetary policy and poor economic fundamentals. 

Gold – ?g?ld  AU #79 – A heavy yellow elemental metal of great value

Gold is neither a claim on the promise of future earnings like a stock, nor a liability owed by a public institution or a private party like a bond. It also lacks the full faith and credit of most governments, like a currency. Gold serves little industrial purpose, unlike all other commodities and is most commonly revered as a shiny metal used in ornamental display or jewelry. It is precisely these failings that make gold a unique and valuable asset and one that can play an important role in portfolio construction. 

Gold is one of the few stores of value that is limited in supply, transportable, globally appreciated and not contingent upon the faith and credit of any entity. It cannot be manufactured or debased. Gold is the only time honored currency or in the words of John Pierpont Morgan (J.P. Morgan), “gold is money, everything else is credit”.

History

Thousands of years ago trade between people began through a system of barter. This method of payment was effective but very limiting.  Trade could not occur unless both parties had the goods or services demanded by the other. If a metalsmith, for example, did not need wheat, a farmer seeking a new sickle would have to find alternative goods or services to offer the metalsmith.

These stark limitations and the growing desires to conduct trade with parties over further distances required a more robust system. Accordingly, trade graduated from the barter system to that of a common currency. Aristotle stated the rationale for a common currency eloquently:  “When the inhabitants of one country became more dependent on those of another, and they imported what they needed, and exported what they had too much of, money necessarily came into use”.  At first, in almost all cases, the currency was a commodity. While eliminating some of the problems associated with barter, this system presented new ones. Carrying gold or other commodities such as silver, grain, shells, or livestock can be cumbersome and difficult to properly measure for weight and purity. Dividing most commodities into fractions for ease of exchange produced additional difficulties. Paying for an acre of land with a quarter of a cow must have presented quite a quandary. 

The next step in the advancement of currency was the use of sovereign issued, standardized currency typically made with gold, silver, copper and bronze. The first known instance of such a currency, the Greek drachma (pictured to the left) dates back to approximately 700BC.  The benefit of this commonly accepted currency was that the supply of money became regulated and standardized. Additionally, the limited availability of the metals made it hard to increase the supply of currency in any significant manner. These currencies held their value well as the worth of the coin was always tied to the weight and the price of the metal used. That said, there are instances where governments abused their authority by decreasing, or shaving, the metal used in each coin, temporarily unbeknownst to the public.