Snap Slides After Analyst Says Sell As ‘Pain Not Over’

Shares of Snap (SNAP) are sliding after BTIG analyst Richard Greenfield told investors he was “tired of watching Snapchat decline from the sidelines” and downgraded the shares to Sell. The analyst noted that since October 2017, Snap’s stock has lost over half its value but he does not believe “the pain is over.” Meanwhile, his peer at Citi lowered his price target on Snap to $8, saying he now sees less likelihood of a near-term takeover due to the company’s recent operational challenges.

BTIG SAYS SELL SNAP: In a research note to investors, BTIG’s Greenfield downgraded Snap to Sell from Neutral, with a price target of $5, saying his previous assumption that “communications apps were sticky and would protect engagement” was incorrect. Moreover, the analyst noted that while he waited for “management to figure out monetization,” the stock has lost over half of its value. The pain is likely not over, he added, stating that he is now “tired” of the company’s excuses for missing numbers. The analyst has said since the IPO back in March of last year that “a bet on Snap was also a bet on [CEO] Evan Spiegel’s product innovation ability.” However, he has been disappointed in the company’s product evolution and sees no reason to believe it will change. Overall, Greenfield believes a Sell rating is warranted given falling engagement and consensus expectations that are too high.

CITI NO LONGER SEES NEAR-TERM BUYOUT: Meanwhile, in a research note of his own, Citi analyst Mark May lowered his price target for Snap to $8 after removing his takeover premium assumption. The analyst had assumed a 50% probability of a takeout at a 35% premium to his fundamental value of $8 per share. However, he told investors that he now sees less likelihood of a near-term takeover due to Snap’s recent operational challenges. May reiterated a Sell rating on the shares. His peer at Jefferies also lowered his price target for Snap to $11 from $14, while keeping a Hold rating on the shares. Based on third-party data analysis of Android usage, Snap’s daily active users and time spent are both trending down in the third quarter in the U.S., U.K., Spain, France, Germany, and Australia, analyst Brent Thill contended. While advertiser sentiment is neutral to positive, the analyst argued that reach is capped due to declining users. Thill added that he continues to prefer shares of Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) over Snap.