For only the 4th time since 1999 (and for the first time since Lehman), South Korea’s economy unexpectedly shrank in Q4 (contracting 0.4% QoQ against expectations of 0.1% expansion), busting the global-synchronized-growth narrative.
Only two analysts forecast the possibility of a contraction…
Government spending rose 0.5% QoQ, and while private consumption rose 1.09% QoQ, construction investment tumbled 3.8% QoQ
Exports were the biggest driver – plunging 5.4% QoQ – the biggest drop since 1985…
As Goldman notes, Korea’s 2017 Q4 GDP contracted 0.2% quarter on quarter (seasonally adjusted), slowing sharply from 1.5% in Q3 and falling for the first time in nine years. The figure was well below consensus and as well as our expectations. Main points:
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