Speculative Positioning Before The Reversal

The latest Commitment of Traders report that covers the four sessions through January 19 saw speculators anticipating the continuation of the current moves.

 Of the sixteen gross positions we track, only five were in reducing exposures.  Last week there was only six increased exposures.  

With the benefit of hindsight, we know that something changed a day or two after the reporting period ended.  Given the magnitude of the reversal in some cases, some of these late positions were likely forced out.  

There were two significant gross position adjustments (10k of more contracts) during the reporting period.  The bears added 11.6k contracts to their gross short sterling position, which stood at 76.4k contracts at the end of the period.  It is the largest such position since March 2015.  The other was the 10.2k increase in the gross short Australian dollar speculative position to 81.7k. It has increased by more than a third since the start of the year.  

Speculators generally increased their gross short currency exposures.  There were two exceptions. These were the euro (gross shorts were reduced by 3.1k contracts) and yen (gross shorts were reduced by 6.3k contracts).  The gross short euro position has been above 200k contracts since early November. The gross short yen position has fallen from 113k contracts in the middle of November to 46.8k contracts in the latest reporting period. 

Speculators mostly increased gross long positions.  The three dollar-bloc currencies were the exceptions.  Given the spot moves, though the adjustment by the speculators in the futures market was minor.  The gross long Canadian dollar positions was cut by 5.8k contracts to 33.1k.  The gross long Australian dollar position was trimmed by 3.1k contracts to 45.5k.  Speculators pared their long New Zealand dollar position by 2.2k contracts to 17.9k. The net Kiwi position flipped back to the short-side with the help of the bears adding 2.3k contracts to the gross shorts.