Still Bullish Bias

SPX still points a little higher. This is based on the P&F projection which calls for a move to about 2500 although, admittedly, it could fall short of its target; the structure, which appears to be forming an ending diagonal needing one more wave; and Friday’s apparently successful retest of an important support level just below the 2411 pivot point. That is the second time in a week that the .382 retracement of the move from 2322 to the 2353 top has held. Even more convincing, on Friday, the DOW transportation index closed at an all-time high.  

Granted, we do not have a confirmed short-term reversal that puts us back into an uptrend, yet. This will have to come next week with a move above the short-term downtrend line from the second top of 2450 providing initial confirmation. If that can be accomplished over the next couple of days, it should attract buyers and be reflected in very positive A/Ds.  

A move below 2400, especially if it continues beyond 2380, would strongly suggest that 2453 was the final top of this rally and that an intermediate correction has already started.  

Analysis: (These Charts and subsequent ones courtesy of QCharts.com)

Daily chart

Occasionally, I find it useful to draw price channels starting with the top trend line connecting tops, with the bottom one as a parallel across the lowest low of the trend. In this case, it gives me a mid-channel line which has provided continued price support since the January low. A break of that support line would be a strong indication that a reversal of the trend has occurred.  

The red horizontal line on the chart is very close to the 2411 pivot which provides additional support to the former tops, starting with the original 2400 level which was the top of the rally from 2084 before some consolidation took place. Also, since the correction from 2400, which ended at 2322, another uptrend started at what is believed to be an ending diagonal, as labeled on the chart. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows from 2322 clearly indicates that we are still in an uptrend until that pattern is reversed. If there is one more short wave to about 2500, it should conclude the ending diagonal which, as its name suggests, would put an end to the uptrend starting at 2084. A normal pull-back would be to 2312 (.382 retracement) or 2268 (50%).  After the final top has occurred, we can check our P&F chart to see if the count of the distribution phase matches one of these Fibonacci retracement levels. Strangely enough, they almost always do.