Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year’s all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
The U.S. stock market indexes were virtually flat on Friday, as they lost 0.02-0.08%, following worse-than-expected monthly jobs report release. The S&P 500 index continued to fluctuate within its two-week-long short-term consolidation along the level of 2,350. The index remained around 2% below March 1 all-time high of 2,400.98. Is this a new downtrend or just relatively shallow downward correction before another medium-term leg up? The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below 20,700 mark again, and technology Nasdaq Composite index remained below 5,900, following its last week’s Wednesday’s move to new record high. The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,350, marked by local lows. The next support level is at 2,335-2,340, marked by some previous local lows. The support level is also at 2,320, marked by February 13 daily gap up of 2,319.23-2,321.42, among others. On the other hand, the nearest important level of resistance is now at 2,370, marked by short-term local highs. The next resistance level is at 2,380-2,400, marked by all-time high, among others. We can see some short-term volatility following five-month-long rally off last year’s November low at around 2,100. Is this a topping pattern before downward reversal? The uptrend accelerated on March 1 and it looked like a blow-off top pattern accompanied by some buying frenzy. The S&P 500 index continues to trade along its medium-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart:
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