Stocks Outlook - Friday, August 17

Thoughts

Housing Starts went up a little and are still trending higher. Medium-long term bullish for the stock market and economy.

Building Permits went up a little and are still trending higher. Medium-long term bullish for the stock market and economy.

Implied currency volatility suggests that the U.S. Dollar’s top is near

Initial Claims are still trending lower. A medium-long term bullish sign for the stock market and economy.

Continued Claims are still trending lower. A medium-long term bullish sign for the stock market and economy.

1 am: Housing Starts went up a little and are still trending higher. Medium-long term bullish for the stock market and economy.

The latest reading for Housing Starts went up a little from its previous reading (1158k to 1168k). However, the key point is that Housing Starts are still trending higher.

The economy and stock market move in the same direction over the long run. Housing is a leading indicator for the U.S. economy. Hence, an improving Housing Starts is a medium-long term bullish sign for the U.S. economy and stock market.

This chart demonstrates how Housing Starts leads the S&P 500.

1 am: Building Permits went up a little and are still trending higher. Medium-long term bullish for the stock market and economy.

The latest reading for Building Permits went up a little (1292k to 1311k).

The more important fact is that Building Permits are still trending upwards.

Like Housing Starts, Building Permits is a leading indicator for the stock market and economy. The stock market trends higher when Building Permits are trending higher. The stock market enters into a bear market when Building Permits are trending lower.