As you probably know, “Sell in May and go away’ states that the stock market is seasonally weak from May – September. We already demonstrated that it isn’t as weak as investors think in this study.

Some investors believe that May-September is not seasonally bearish IF…

  • The stock market falls from January – April, AND…
  • There’s no recession that year (a recession in 2018 is highly unlikely).

    • Are they right? Let’s look at what happens next to the U.S. stock market from May-September when

    The S&P falls from January – April…

    And the S&P isn’t in a recession that year (a recession in 2018 is highly unlikely)

    Here are the historical years.

  • 2018 (present case)
  • 2005
  • 2004
  • 2002
  • 2000
  • 1994
  • 1992
  • 1984
  • 1977
  • 1966
  • 1962
  • 1952

    • Here’s what happened next

    2005

    The stock market went up from May-September. It also went up from October – December.

     

    2004

    The stock market was flat from May-September. It went up from October – December.

     

    2002

    The stock market went down from May-September. It also went down from October – December.

     

    2000

    The stock market was flat from May-September. It went down from October – December.

     

    1994

    The stock market went up from May-September. It was flat from October – December.

     

    1992

    The stock market was flat from May-September. It went up from October – December.

     

    1984

    The stock market went up from May-September. It also went up from October – December.

     

    1977

    The stock market went down from May-September. It also went down from October – December.

     

    1966

    The stock market went down from May-September. It went up from October – December.

     

    1962

    The stock market went down from May-September. It went up from October – December.

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