Sucker Bets: Cameron Caves In As Predicted

One of easiest bets in history was that UK prime minister David Cameron would accept any offer he received to stop “Brexit”.

So after marathon negotiations in which German Chancellor Angela Merkel took a Time Out to Eat Belgium Fries, Cameron did the expected cave-in.

On Friday, this is what I said ….

Bad Deal or No Deal

There is no way Cameron can secure a good deal for the UK. Even if he gets a 13-year commitment, what then? And Hollande is bound and determined to make the UK abide by whatever arcane financial rules the EU dreams up.

Perhaps these negotiations fail after all. But don’t count on it. History suggests Cameron will cave in.

Cave-In Secured

Please consider Cameron Secures ‘New Settlement’ After Marathon Talks.

David Cameron paved the way on Friday for a historic vote in June on Britain’s future in the EU, after securing a package of reforms at the end of a grueling two-day summit in Brussels.

But the prime minister had to make compromises in Brussels to win his deal and faces a major political test over the weekend as he tries to sell the package to his party and to Eurosceptics in his cabinet.

Mr Cameron confirmed that his friend the justice secretary Michael Gove would campaign for Britain to leave the EU; his team suspects that Boris Johnson, London mayor, may be on the verge of joining him.

Senior Tories fear that Mr Gove, an influential figure on the Tory right, could provide cover for other ministers to join the Brexit camp, setting the scene for a fiercely contested referendum campaign.

The prime minister, facing opposition from Poland and other eastern European countries, was forced to compromise on his plan to limit welfare payments to migrant workers, a retreat that will be exploited by his critics.

Success at Last!

A four-year restriction on in-work benefit payments to individual migrant workers, operable over a seven-year period, was hailed as a good result by Mr Cameron but it falls short of the outright ban promised in the Tory election manifesto.

Mr Cameron was also forced to compromise on his promise to stop “exporting” child benefit claimed by migrant workers; the final deal would only see payments index-linked to living standards in the country where the child resides and would only be fully operable from 2020.

François Hollande, French president, battled with Mr Cameron to ensure that the new rules did not effectively give the City of London a veto over new European financial rules. Under the deal, Britain can unilaterally appeal to heads of government if it feels it is the victim of discrimination.